Today we listened to Clay Vaugh, Vice President of Deepwater Projects from ExxonMobil Development Company, present the 2010 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030. To summarize the report, the world’s energy demand for consumption is expected to grow 35% from 2005 to 2030. (Without discounting for future energy efficiencies, the global energy demand would essentially double.)
So the question is where can we expect the increase in energy supply – alternative energy, coal, oil, etc.? As shown in the following table from Exxon’s report, the majority of the fuel is expected to be provided by natural gas – at an estimated 2% increase per year over the next 25 years cumulating at 25% of global energy supply.
The rise in natural gas is expected to be a result of increased power generation needs and reduction of carbon emissions. While this may not be exactly considered newsworthy, what is interesting is where the additional natural gas is expected to be supplied. The largest percentage growth sector is anticipated to be domestic unconventional natural gas deposits, such as shale gas, and then imports.
So what does this mean for the future? Additional exploration and production in the United States for shale gas will allow us to meet demand. Secondly, national oil companies will continue to play a major economic and political role in the global economy.
Also of significance, the chart shows that while wind, solar and biofuels will contribute a smaller percentage of future energy source, the expected growth is the highest percentage at almost 10% per year. That annual growth rate will need to be funded by considerable capital investments and project experience. (More on that discussion at a later date.)
Given recent events in Japan, global nuclear investments may differ from what is currently projected at an annual growth rate of 2.1%.
What do you see as a major issue(s) to meeting these projected energy demands?